Are car insurance prices going down in 2026? The monthly BLS index, in context

On the federal price measure, yes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for motor vehicle insurance fell 5.0% over the 12 months ended September 2026 (not seasonally adjusted, published October 14, 2026). It has shown a 12-month decline every month since May 2026. The same index is still 35.5% higher than in September 2022, and it tracks fixed sample policies, not your renewal.

This page lays out the monthly index values from January 2025 through September 2026, shows the arithmetic behind every change we computed, and sets the NAIC premium averages for 2020 to 2024 beside it as a separate measure. It makes no forecast. Where the data stop, the page says so.

Estimates and published averages, not a quote. Not insurance advice. State rules and insurer rules vary. Confirm requirements with your state insurance regulator or a licensed agent in your state.

The September 2026 figure and where it comes from

The figure in the answer above comes from BLS series CUUR0000SETE: motor vehicle insurance, U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted, with a base of 1982-84 = 100. The September 2026 value is 846.102. Twelve months earlier, in September 2025, it was 890.473. BLS's Table 2 for the September 2026 release lists the unadjusted 12-month change for motor vehicle insurance as -5.0%, and the figure we computed from the two index values matches it.

For scale, the same Table 2 shows the all-items index up 3.7% over the same 12 months. So by September 2026 the price of motor vehicle insurance, as BLS measures it, was falling while consumer prices overall were rising. Motor vehicle insurance carried a relative importance of 2.531 in the August 2026 weights printed in that table, meaning it accounts for about 2.5% of the spending the CPI tracks.

BLS published the September data on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, according to its 2026 release calendar. The October 2026 figures are scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, and November's for Thursday, December 10, 2026. Everything on this page was read from BLS on October 22, 2026, so it covers data through September 2026 and nothing later.

Monthly index, January 2025 to September 2026

The table gives each month's not seasonally adjusted index value, the value for the same month a year earlier, and the 12-month change we computed from those two numbers. The seasonally adjusted value (series CUSR0000SETE) sits in its own column for readers who want to see month-to-month movement, but it is not used for any 12-month change.

Three stretches stand out. Through most of 2025 the index was still higher than a year earlier, though by a shrinking margin: from +11.8% in January to +3.1% in September. From December 2025 through April 2026 the 12-month change sat close to zero, between +0.2% and +2.8%. Then in May 2026 it turned negative, and the decline widened to between -4.1% and -5.1% from June through September.

The month-to-month drops that produced that turn are visible in the unadjusted column. The index fell from 894.315 in April 2026 to 877.278 in May, a 1.9% decline in one month, and then to 858.481 in June, another 2.1%. Since June the monthly moves have been smaller. The highest unadjusted value in the January 2019 to September 2026 data we pulled is February 2026, at 897.406; September 2026 is 5.7% below it. Whether the index keeps falling, levels off or turns up is not something this data answers, and we do not guess.

How each change was computed

Every percentage on this page that is not printed by BLS or NAIC was computed the same way: divide the later value by the earlier value, subtract 1, multiply by 100, and round to one decimal place. For September 2026, that is (846.102 / 890.473 - 1) x 100 = -4.98, which rounds to -5.0%. That matches the -5.0% BLS prints in Table 2 of the September release, which is a useful check that we are reading the same series.

The 12-month changes use the not seasonally adjusted series because comparing the same calendar month a year apart already removes the usual seasonal pattern. Seasonally adjusted values are meant for comparing one month with the next. The difference shows up in the September release itself: Table 2 lists the unadjusted change from August to September 2026 as -0.3%, but the seasonally adjusted change as +0.1%. That is why the BLS news release text says the motor vehicle insurance index increased over the month, even though the unadjusted value fell. Both statements are correct; they answer different questions.

Where a month has no value, no change is computed. October 2026 and November 2026 will have no computable 12-month change on this basis when they are published, because the October 2025 and November 2025 values they would be compared with are missing.

The longer run: 2019 to September 2026

A 5% fall reads very differently against the climb that came before it. The table below uses December values to give a calendar-year change for each year, plus the nine months from December 2025 to September 2026. All values are the unadjusted index.

Measured from December 2019 to September 2026, the motor vehicle insurance index rose 47.7% (846.102 / 572.979). Over the same span the all-items CPI rose 31.1%, from 256.974 to 336.940. Those two are the same kind of measure, both BLS price indexes, so the comparison is fair: even after the 2026 decline, the price of car insurance as BLS tracks it has risen faster than consumer prices overall since the end of 2019.

The other benchmark readers ask about is the starting point of the steep run. September 2026 is 35.5% above September 2022 (624.558), 14.0% above September 2023 (742.292), and 2.0% below September 2024 (863.292). So a driver whose price moved exactly with the index would be paying less than two years ago but well above four years ago. Real policies do not move exactly with the index, as the sections below explain.

The NAIC premium averages: a separate measure, shown separately

The other national source this site uses is the NAIC 2024 Auto Insurance Database Average Premium Supplement, published September 2026. It does not measure price change on fixed policies. It divides premium actually written by the number of insured vehicles, so it describes what insured vehicles cost on average in a given year, with whatever coverage people bought. Its latest data year is 2024, which means it says nothing yet about 2025 or 2026. Converted to a monthly figure, and set beside the quote-sample averages that print higher numbers, the same NAIC data answers the per-month question in how much car insurance costs per month.

The combined average premium is liability plus collision plus comprehensive for one insured vehicle (Table 5). The average expenditure is total written premium for those coverages divided by liability written car-years (Table 4). That denominator assumes every insured vehicle carries liability but not necessarily collision or comprehensive, so vehicles with liability only are counted alongside fully covered ones. The liability average premium is liability written premium divided by liability exposures (Table 1C). The NAIC report states the 2024 combined average premium rose 12.12% and the average expenditure rose 11.71%.

These figures feed the state benchmarks on this site, for example the 2024 combined average premium of $1,396 on the Pennsylvania rates page, and the Car Rate Checker uses them to place a quote against a state figure. Published averages and benchmarks, not a quote. Not insurance advice. This site does not sell insurance.

Why the two measures are never put in one comparison

It is tempting to set the CPI change for a year next to the NAIC change for the same year and read the gap as a finding. We do not, because the two are built in ways that make the gap mostly a measure of method, not of the market.

• What is priced. BLS follows selected real policies and holds the drivers, vehicle, location, use, mileage and coverage constant, repricing the same package each month. NAIC divides all written premium by all insured vehicles, so a year in which many drivers raise deductibles or drop collision lowers the NAIC average without any price having fallen.
• When it is counted. BLS collects premiums for its sample every month, spread over three pricing periods. NAIC counts premium written during a calendar year, and a policy written in March and one written in November land in the same year at different prices.
• Who is in it. BLS excludes vehicles used mainly for business and policies written for farmers or ranchers, and it does not price assigned-risk or motorcycle policies (they count in the index weight only). NAIC combines voluntary and residual market business.
• What it answers. CPI answers "how much more or less does the same insurance cost than it did?" NAIC answers "what did insured vehicles in this state cost on average that year?" Both are useful; they are not two estimates of one number.

So this page shows each measure in its own table, states its unit and data year, and leaves them there. The CPI says the price of a constant basket of car insurance was falling in mid-2026. NAIC says the countrywide combined average premium was $1,613 per insured vehicle in 2024. Neither is your premium.

Why a falling index does not mean a lower renewal for you

The BLS factsheet on how it measures motor vehicle insurance explains, without intending to, most of the reasons a reader's renewal can go up while the index goes down. The index is built to remove exactly the changes that drive individual prices.

Your car ages; the index car does not. Once a year, usually in October or November, BLS moves each sample vehicle forward one model year so that a 3-year-old car stays 3 years old. Any premium change from that swap counts as price change. Your own car gets a year older every year, and whatever that does to your premium is a change the index is designed not to see.

Your household changes; the index household does not. BLS records the age, sex, driving record and marital status of the drivers on each sampled policy, along with surcharges and discounts, and holds them constant. A new teen driver, a speeding conviction, a claim, a discount that ends or a move to a different ZIP code all change your price, and none of them is in the index. If a record change is the cause, checking your CLUE report and MVR is the place to start.

Your insurer's filing is not the national average. The index is a weighted figure across carriers and areas. A 5.0% national decline can sit on top of some companies and states filing increases while others file larger cuts. The rate that applies to you is the one your insurer filed in your state, which you can often look up through your state's SERFF rate filing search.

Timing lags. Policies renew on their own dates, often for six or twelve months at a time. A renewal priced under a filing that took effect months ago reflects that filing, not this month's index.

Refunds paid separately are not price cuts. BLS treats an insurer dividend as a price reduction only when it lowers the premium. A dividend paid to the policyholder as a separate payment is treated as income, so it does not lower the index even though it lowers what that policyholder spent.

Illustration: what the index arithmetic does and does not tell you

Labelled illustration only, with stated inputs. Take a hypothetical annual premium of $1,800 in September 2025 and ask what it would be in September 2026 if it moved exactly with the unadjusted index. The answer is $1,800 x 846.102 / 890.473 = $1,710, a fall of $90. Run the same arithmetic from September 2022, and a $1,800 premium then would correspond to $1,800 x 846.102 / 624.558 = $2,438 now.

Now suppose the same hypothetical driver's actual September 2026 renewal is $1,890. That is $180 more than the index-tracking figure of $1,710, and the gap is the part of the change the index cannot explain: rating facts about this driver, this car and this insurer's filing. The Renewal Increase Analyzer is built to split a renewal into those lines from two declarations pages. For the line-by-line reading of a renewal, use why your renewal went up; this page only sizes the national price background.

Using the dataset when you shop

A falling index is a reasonable moment to compare prices, because some insurers may have filed decreases while yours did not. It is not a reason to expect a lower number on any one quote. The useful habit is to compare matched quotes, with the same limits, deductibles, drivers and term, so that price differences reflect insurers rather than coverage choices; the method is in how to compare car insurance quotes.

If your price is high whatever the index does, the causes are usually specific: location, vehicle, record, limits or a lapse in coverage. Those are set out in why your car insurance is so high. The index can tell you whether the national background is rising or falling; it cannot move any of those factors.

Readers with an electric car sometimes ask whether the decline applies to them. The index covers all private passenger vehicles in its sample and publishes no split by vehicle type; what insurer loss data say about EVs is in electric car insurance. More price guides are collected under price and renewals.

Limits of this dataset

The CPI motor vehicle insurance index is published at the U.S. city average level, so this page has no state figures from BLS. The sample of carriers was last fully replaced in 2004 and partly replaced in 2018 to add geographic areas, according to the BLS factsheet. Two months of 2025 are missing. The NAIC data stop at 2024. Nothing here describes any one driver, and nothing here predicts the next release. When BLS publishes October 2026 data on November 10, 2026, the table above will be one month out of date until it is reviewed again; the review date at the top of this page tells you which data it reflects.

Questions readers ask

If your renewal rose while the index fell, enter your old and new declarations page figures in the Renewal Increase Analyzer to see which lines produced the difference.